Open data. Real math. Public receipts.
Prexora's signals are not opinions. They are the output of numerical weather models compared to live market pricing. Every step of the pipeline is auditable — we tell you the data sources, the gates each signal must pass, and the entire historical track record. What we don't expose is the recipe: the exact thresholds and detector weightings stay internal so the edge doesn't decay.
From a weather signal to a full prediction-market engine
Prexora starts narrow and proves it works — weather on Polymarket, public receipts, an autonomous agent — then widens to every market and every venue. Here is the path.
Five forecast models, one ground truth
Most weather signal services run one or two models. Prexora blends five numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems plus live observations — and adapts the blend to each city based on which model performs best for that climate.
Probability vs price = edge
For every market on Polymarket, we compute the probability the model says it should be at, and compare to the market's actual price. The gap is your edge. Sizing follows half-Kelly, capped to a small fraction of bankroll per signal.
Every signal logged. Every outcome auto-resolved.
The moment a signal is generated, it's stamped with a timestamp and the market price at publication. The moment Polymarket settles the underlying market, our system records the outcome against the CLOB winner flag — no human intervention, no retroactive picks, no edits. The track record on this site is what came out of that process.
We don't pretend Seoul and Atlanta are the same problem
Each city is classified by terrain, climate volatility, and which numerical model performs best for it. Different cities use different default models (Tokyo → ECMWF; Dallas → GFS; Hong Kong → ECMWF). Stakes are scaled down for high-volatility climates regardless of edge magnitude.
EASY tier
MEDIUM tier
HARD tier
12 US cities at Phase 1 launch. International coverage (London, Paris, Tokyo, Seoul) ships in Phase 1.5 once the city-specific calibration is locked.
The system gets stricter over time, not looser
Prexora reads every resolved bet and adjusts itself. If a detector loses money for 30 days, its confidence multiplier is automatically reduced. If a (city, direction) combination loses 3+ times below a 30% win rate, it's automatically blacklisted until manually cleared. If a city loses 2 bets in a single day, signals on that city pause until tomorrow. Discipline is built in.
Signal fires
Engine generates a pick with confidence × edge.
Outcome logged
Polymarket CLOB resolves the market. Win or loss recorded.
Detector adjusted
Losing detectors get auto-down-weighted; bad cities pause.
Stricter next time
Rolling-window discipline. The model gets harder to please.
Every signal must pass all eight
Before any signal is published, it has to pass eight independent gates. Any one rejection and the signal is discarded silently. The exact thresholds stay internal — the gate names below are the categories, not the parameters.
Prexora is research and education, not financial advice. We do not place bets for you. We do not custody your funds. Every signal is timestamped at publication and auto-resolved against Polymarket CLOB. The track record is computed on Prexora's standard $2,500/day model portfolio — fully auditable, nothing deleted, nothing backfilled.