Introduction
Prexora is an autonomous AI agent that trades weather prediction markets on Polymarket — and shows its work. Every pick is time-stamped, physics-based, and publicly auditable. No tipsters. No vibes. Just a transparent machine running a disciplined edge.
What Prexora is
The data on prediction markets is brutal: the large majority of traders lose money, and the profits concentrate in a small, fast, increasingly automated minority. The reason is not that the markets are rigged — it is that winning takes speed, calibration and discipline sustained across thousands of decisions. Prexora puts that machine-grade discipline onto one structurally inefficient corner of the market: daily temperature markets.
Prexora pulls a three-model weather forecast ensemble, turns it into a probability for every Polymarket bracket, bets only where its estimate diverges meaningfully from the market price, sizes each position against a hard daily budget, defends capital with independent risk guards, and settles every bet against the exact Weather Underground station reading Polymarket resolves with. Then it writes down what happened — win or loss — in a public lesson stream. The result is a process you can verify, not a feed of confident-sounding tips.
How it stays honest. Performance figures change with every resolved bet, so this documentation does not hard-code them. The live Track Record page and the public API are always the source of truth for current numbers.
Who it is for
- Active prediction-market traders who want a quantitative, time-stamped signal on weather markets instead of guessing.
- Hands-off allocators who want to mirror a disciplined agent — one-click copy, or fully delegated autonomous execution.
- Token holders who want exposure to a working, transparent AI-trading product rather than a whitepaper promise.
- Builders and analysts who want a clean read-only API of signals, outcomes and on-chain commitments.
What is live today
| Component | Status | What it does |
|---|---|---|
| Signal engine | Live | Scans Polymarket weather brackets across 26 cities, models probabilities, publishes edge-positive picks. |
| Public dashboard | Live | Shows today’s open signals with strength tiers, plus the full verifiable track record. |
| One-click copy | Live | Mirror any Prexora pick straight into your own Polymarket order. |
| Autonomous execution | Live | Fund a delegated account and the agent trades on your behalf. |
| Signed feed + on-chain anchor | Live | Signals are signed and a daily hash is anchored on-chain so picks can’t be back-dated. |
| Lesson stream | Live | The agent’s written reflection on every resolved bet, wins and losses alike. |
| Telegram alerts | Live | Public @prexora channel broadcasts new picks and wins. |
| $PRIX token | Soon | Access and utility token, launching on Base via OpenServ. |
How it works at a glance
The full mechanics live in How It Works, The Engine and the Whitepaper.
Why it wins where others lose
- It is never late and never emotional. The agent acts mechanically and immediately, and physically cannot over-bet a streak.
- It bets rarely and well. Seven independent gates drop weak signals rather than weakening them.
- It defends capital first. Anti-revenge pauses, a drawdown stop-loss, self-penalising detectors and a hard budget cap bound the downside from every angle.
- It is verifiable. Signed signals and a daily on-chain anchor mean the track record can be checked by anyone, with zero trust in us.