Prexora Docs
Whitepaper
Overview / Introduction

Introduction

Prexora is an autonomous AI agent that trades weather prediction markets on Polymarket — and shows its work. Every pick is time-stamped, physics-based, and publicly auditable. No tipsters. No vibes. Just a transparent machine running a disciplined edge.

What Prexora is

The data on prediction markets is brutal: the large majority of traders lose money, and the profits concentrate in a small, fast, increasingly automated minority. The reason is not that the markets are rigged — it is that winning takes speed, calibration and discipline sustained across thousands of decisions. Prexora puts that machine-grade discipline onto one structurally inefficient corner of the market: daily temperature markets.

Prexora pulls a three-model weather forecast ensemble, turns it into a probability for every Polymarket bracket, bets only where its estimate diverges meaningfully from the market price, sizes each position against a hard daily budget, defends capital with independent risk guards, and settles every bet against the exact Weather Underground station reading Polymarket resolves with. Then it writes down what happened — win or loss — in a public lesson stream. The result is a process you can verify, not a feed of confident-sounding tips.

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How it stays honest. Performance figures change with every resolved bet, so this documentation does not hard-code them. The live Track Record page and the public API are always the source of truth for current numbers.

Who it is for

What is live today

ComponentStatusWhat it does
Signal engineLiveScans Polymarket weather brackets across 26 cities, models probabilities, publishes edge-positive picks.
Public dashboardLiveShows today’s open signals with strength tiers, plus the full verifiable track record.
One-click copyLiveMirror any Prexora pick straight into your own Polymarket order.
Autonomous executionLiveFund a delegated account and the agent trades on your behalf.
Signed feed + on-chain anchorLiveSignals are signed and a daily hash is anchored on-chain so picks can’t be back-dated.
Lesson streamLiveThe agent’s written reflection on every resolved bet, wins and losses alike.
Telegram alertsLivePublic @prexora channel broadcasts new picks and wins.
$PRIX tokenSoonAccess and utility token, launching on Base via OpenServ.

How it works at a glance

01
Ingest
Pull a 3-model forecast ensemble & open Polymarket brackets for every covered city.
02
Model
Turn the ensemble into a probability for each temperature bracket.
03
Find edge
Compare model probability vs market price; keep only meaningful gaps.
04
Gate & size
Pass seven quality gates and risk guards; size with half-Kelly under the daily cap.
05
Bet & resolve
Place the bet, settle against the resolving Weather Underground reading, record the outcome.
06
Reflect
Write a public lesson and feed the learning loop.

The full mechanics live in How It Works, The Engine and the Whitepaper.

Why it wins where others lose

Where to go next