Overview / Glossary
Glossary
Plain-English definitions of the terms you will meet across Prexora and Polymarket weather markets.
Market terms
| Term | Meaning |
|---|
| Prediction market | A contract that pays out based on whether a real-world event happens. Settles to objective truth rather than sentiment. |
| Temperature bracket | A market on whether a day’s high (or low) temperature falls in a given range for a given city. |
| Ceiling market | “Above X” — resolves YES if the temperature is at or above a threshold (open-ended upward). |
| Floor market | “Below X” — resolves YES if the temperature is at or below a threshold (open-ended downward). |
| Range market | Resolves YES if the temperature falls between two bounds. |
| Single-value market | Resolves YES on one exact bracket value. |
| Polymarket | The on-chain prediction-market venue (on Polygon) where Prexora’s bets settle. |
Prexora terms
| Term | Meaning |
|---|
| Signal / pick | A published recommendation: a market, a favoured side and bracket, a strength tier and a rationale. |
| Edge | The gap between Prexora’s model probability and the market price. Bets are only taken when edge clears a threshold. |
| Strength tier | A summary of how much conviction the agent has in a signal. |
| Funded signal | A pick the agent actually stakes. Only funded outcomes affect the published win rate and P&L. |
| Display-only signal | A near-miss pick shown for breadth with a real strength tier but zero stake. Never affects performance figures. |
| Daily budget | The hard cap on capital the agent can deploy in a day (currently $10,000). Prevents over-betting on streaks. |
| Lesson stream | The public feed of the agent’s written reflection on every resolved bet, win or loss. |
| Shadow mode | A state where a new strategy or calibration is evaluated against live decisions without risking capital, before it can be promoted. |
| Calibration | Correction of systematic per-city forecast bias to sharpen probability estimates. |
| Impact ledger | A correlational read on whether learning actions are actually improving outcomes. |
| Signed feed | Cryptographically signed signals that can be verified as genuine and unaltered. |
| On-chain commit | A daily hash of signals posted on-chain so picks cannot be back-dated. |
Engine & model terms
| Term | Meaning |
|---|
| Forecast ensemble | The three independent NWP models (ECMWF, GFS, ICON) Prexora combines per city. |
| NWP | Numerical Weather Prediction — physics-based atmospheric models run by national agencies. |
| Weather Underground (WU) | The resolution source — the airport-station reading Polymarket settles weather markets on. Predicting it accurately is the agent’s core job. |
| METAR | Hourly airport observations from the same sensors WU uses — a real-time same-day cross-check on whether a bracket is already hit or impossible. |
| μ / σ | The mean and spread of the forecast ensemble — the center and width of the outcome distribution. |
| Normal CDF (Φ) | The function used to turn the μ,σ distribution into a probability for each bracket. |
| Quality gate (G1–G7) | Seven independent filters a signal must clear; failing any one drops it entirely. |
| Detector | A (city, side, strength) combination whose recent win rate auto-penalizes its own edge when losing. |
| Half-Kelly | A conservative position-sizing rule (half the Kelly-optimal stake) scaled by conviction. |
| Drawdown stop-loss | A global halt on all publishing when trailing losses exceed a threshold. |
| Anti-revenge pause | Stopping a city for the day after it loses repeatedly — the discipline a human lacks. |
Token terms
| Term | Meaning |
|---|
| $PRIX | The Prexora access and utility token, launching on Base. |
| OpenServ | The launchpad used for the $PRIX fair launch. |
| Base | The Ethereum L2 chain the token launches on. |
| Tier-gating | Using PRIX holdings or stake to unlock Member and Pro benefits. |